Increasing tropical cyclone intensity and potential intensity in the subtropical Atlantic around Bermuda from an ocean heat content perspective 1955–2019

Abstract We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100 km radius of Bermuda between 1955 2019. The results show more easterly genesis over time significant increasing trends in TC (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with decadal Vmax median value increase 30 kts from 33 to 63 ( r = 0.94, p 0.02), together August, September, October sea surface temperature (SST) 1.1 °C (0.17 per decade) 0.4 < 0.01) average ocean 0.5 0.7 (0.08 °C–0.1 0.3( the depth range 0–300 m. strongest correlation is found averaged through top 50 m layer T 50 m ‾ ) 0.37 0.01). how potential (PI) estimates are closer actual by using {{T_{50\,{\text{m}}}}} 50 as opposed SST Hydrostation S time-series. modify widely used PI index provide estimate observed minimum level pressure (MSLP), associated than SST, creating { }$?> _PI) index. MSLP difference reduced 12 mb proportional 0.74, SST/ difference. also suggest could be wider area subtropical/tropical Atlantic where there shallow mixed depth.